GDP growth rate of 7% is within reach

How is the production and business situation in the last months of the year, Madam?

It can be said that our country's economy this year is quite favorable, except for the damage caused by Typhoon Yagi. In the past 11 months, businesses have continuously boosted production to meet domestic and export demand. While in the same period in 2023, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by only 0.9%, this year it increased by 8.4%. This is a very impressive increase because in the same period in 2020 it only increased by 3% and in 2021 it increased by 4.2%. In particular, the most impressive is still the processing and manufacturing industry, which achieved a growth rate of 9.7%, instead of only increasing by 1% in the 11 months of 2023, contributing 8.5 percentage points to the overall growth rate.

Thanks to the recovery of production and business activities, nearly 71,300 enterprises have returned to operation since the beginning of the year, an increase of 28.5% over the same period in 2023, bringing the total number of newly established and re-operated enterprises in the 11 months of 2024 to more than 218,500 units, with an average of nearly 20,000 newly established and re-operated enterprises per month, an increase of 7.4% over the same period in 2023.

Total foreign direct investment (FDI) in 11 months was 31.38 billion USD, reaching the highest level in many years. There were 1,350 FDI projects in operation, increasing by 9.93 billion USD in investment capital (an increase of nearly 41% over the same period last year). It is also noteworthy that 21.68 billion USD of FDI capital was implemented, an increase of more than 7% over the same period last year. This is proof that the sector's operations are very effective.

What are you most impressed with?

Never before has the state budget collection been completed as early as this year. In 11 months, the collection exceeded the estimate by 6.3% and increased by 16% over the same period last year. Of which, domestic revenue - reflecting the efficiency of production and business activities of the entire economy, exceeded the estimate by 4.3% and increased by 16.8%. Revenue from import-export activities exceeded the estimate by nearly 22% and increased by 18.6% thanks to this activity continuing its impressive growth momentum. If in 11 months of 2023, the total import-export turnover of new goods reached 620 billion USD, this year it reached 715.55 billion USD, an increase of 15.4%, of which exports increased by 14.4%; imports increased by 16.4%. This is also a very impressive achievement.

Another impressive point is that agricultural exports have exceeded the set target, reaching 56.74 billion USD, up 19%. Agricultural products increasingly account for a high proportion of total export turnover, contributing significantly to GDP growth.

The domestic market has not really recovered, which can be considered a "low note" of the economy in 2024, madam?

In the 11 months of 2024, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 8.8%, excluding price factors, it increased by 5.8% (in the same period in 2023, it increased by 9.7% and 7%, respectively). Thus, the growth rate of the domestic market is lower than the previous year and much lower than the period before the Covid-19 pandemic (always growing at over 10%/year). But there is a bright spot: revenue from accommodation and food services increased by 13%; Travel and tourism increased by 17.3% because localities have promoted tourism promotion activities since the beginning of the year, increasing the attraction of domestic and international visitors. Retail sales of goods increased slowly (up 8.1%) partly because people's demand for food, clothing, footwear, household appliances, means of transport (except cars) ... is limited, the higher people's income, the sooner material needs are saturated, so it is difficult to grow strongly.

Retail sales of goods account for a large part of the total revenue of the domestic market, so many countries have implemented stimulus by giving money to people. Do you think that Vietnam should also apply such a policy?

Some countries have given money to people, such as Thailand, which gave 10,000 baht directly to 45 million adult citizens, to stimulate domestic consumption. China gave money to the poor, orphans, and people in difficult circumstances. Some other countries also did the same.

Those countries gave money to people because the economy was lacking currency in circulation. Vietnam does not have a shortage of money and people are still guaranteed essential consumption needs (including those affected by recent storms and floods). The Government has always supported the reconstruction of infrastructure and people's houses through economic recovery programs and social housing projects, so it does not implement stimulus like Thailand.

Caring for the people in general, the poor, the elderly without income, the disabled, children, the vulnerable in particular, and ensuring social security is one of the important tasks of the Party and the State. Every year, the state budget spends a lot of money to buy health insurance for the poor, the near-poor, the elderly, the disabled; providing food for the poor during holidays...

But while the domestic market has not yet recovered, adding new policies is also something to pay attention to, madam?

Vietnam does not directly distribute money to the people, but has indirectly distributed support through extending, exempting, and reducing taxes, fees, and land rents from 2019 until at least the end of 2025, with an amount worth tens of billions of USD. In 11 months of this year, the total amount of exemption, reduction, and extension is about 171,700 billion VND.

The National Assembly has just agreed to continue extending the VAT reduction period from 10% to 8% until June 30, 2025. Thus, the VAT reduction period to directly support people and businesses has been extended continuously since mid-2022 until now and continues to be extended. Just by reducing this tax, the state budget will reduce revenue by 4,000-4,500 billion VND per month, and about 2 billion USD per year, much more than the support packages that other countries are implementing. Vietnam's support policy is to create opportunities for people and businesses to promote production and business, increase income, thereby increasing spending, that is, creating a "fishing rod", instead of directly distributing "fish" like some countries./.